He accurately predicted the winner of all 50 states (and D.C.) in the 2012 presidential election. He also got 31 of 33 states senatorial races right. And he had Kentucky winning it last year. If I was a betting man, and I had an empty bracket in front of me, I'd look to NYTimes FiveThirtyEight statistics guru Nate Silver for inspiration. But in case you want the sparknotes (when have you ever turned that offer down), we've cherry picked the 10 most insightful analyses he has given us for this year's tourney. Just remember me when you're spending you winnings…
8) (8) N.C. State is the clear favorite (72% chance of advancing) against (9) Temple in the one of those pesky toss up games.
7) Be wary of Miami (teams that overachieved during the season tend to do the opposite in the tournament, and vice versa.)
Hey, wait a minute Nate Silver, you said there was no outright favorite?! Well, he did, but the margins this guys uses to determine "outright favorite" and "wide open tournament" are pretty slim. Suffice it to say, last year he had Kentucky as a 26.7% favorite, while this year, Louisville is only 22.7% favorite. Now go win your office pool and shut up that loud mouth Kevin over in sales.
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